Let’s not get over confident – the latest Nate Silver article

I would recommend an article by Nate Silver, a noted election statistician:

Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End — And 3 Involve Clinton Winning

In this article Nate reminds us that even with a 87% chance of winning, not all signs point to a Hillary blow out. Silver reminds us that that a candidate with 87% chance wining means that she should win 6 out of 7 times and that a candidate like Trump should win once out of every 7 Presidential elections.

The information below — which is based on 20,000 simulations from our model as of Friday afternoon2 — attempts to explain this by laying out four broad scenarios:

A Trump win, including cases where he loses the popular vote but wins the Electoral College.

A narrow Clinton win, wherein she wins the Electoral College, but wins the popular vote by 3 percentage points or less. (Or wins the Electoral College and loses the popular vote.)

A Clinton win in the “Obama zone,” wherein she wins the popular vote by 4 to 7 percentage points — the margins by which President Obama won the elections in 2012 and 2008, respectively. Clinton is all but certain to win the Electoral College if she wins the popular vote by this amount.

Finally, a Clinton blowout, wherein she wins the popular vote by 8 points or more, which would almost certainly also yield a dominant performance in the Electoral College.

I have taken the data which Silver’s charts  provide and provided the results in percentages.   Silver arrived at these percentages by running 20,000 simulations of the election (using a computer of course) based on the the results of state and national polls.

Based on the current polls only:

Trump win: 13%

Narrow Clinton win: 13%

Clinton win in the “Obama Zone”:  31%

Clinton blowout: 4 3%

Based on current polls and trends of past elections “discounts Clinton’s lead slightly, expecting the race to tighten by a point or so”.

Trump win: 16%

Narrow Clinton win: 17%

Clinton win in the “Obama Zone”: 36%

Clinton blowout: 32%

The bottom line for me is that we can’t get complacent. We must get out the vote and be sure to remember to vote ourselves, regardless of which state we live in. To have a real mandate for change Hillary needs not only to win the Electoral College, she needs to win the popular vote by a large margin as well. That means that a vote in California is as important as vote in Iowa.

Cajun     10/27/2016

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