Today I came across an excellent analysis of the Democratic nomination race going forward in a post on the website DemocraticUnderground.com. It was posted in the aftermath of Bernie Sanders’ surprising win in Michigan. I was impressed so I reached out to the person who posted it and asked him/her if I could re-publicize on my blog as a guest article. The author, M. Smith, agreed so here it is:
First, I think it’s important we all keep our heads about us. It was unexpected, and sucked, but it wasn’t a game changer. There is virtually no chance Bernie erases the delegate lead.
For point of reference, Obama won by 102 delegates in 2008 and never lead by over 200. According to the NY Times, Hillary is up 760-546. That is 214. But what that means is that Hillary has won 58%. That is a lot.
As shocking as last night was, those types of wins won’t win the nomination for Sanders.
It wasn’t a game changer. What it was was an end-game changer.
And this is why we’re in for a rough patch.
March 15th looks pretty good.
Ohio 143 delegates – I don’t think anyone trusts the Ohio polls at this point. I think we should expect another “virtual tie” at this point, regardless of the polls.
Illinois 156 – I think we’ll win this somewhat close. Clinton being linked so close to Obama has to help in his home state.
Missouri 71 – I have no idea what to believe here. I think St. Louis and Kansas City should help us.
North Carolina 107 – our last state in the South, but it’s a bit different from the rest of the south. We’ll still win it though.
Florida 214 – the big prize. And it’s a CLOSED primary. Which is huge for us. We’ll win this, probably by a big margin.
Regardless of what happens, Hillary will expand her delegate lead next week, which is good news. But the rest? Even if we sweep the board, which we can, Sanders WILL stay in, and start knocking off wins. The next states after March 15th are:
Arizona – 75 delegates
Idaho – 14
Utah – 33
Alaska – 16
Hawaii – 25
Washington – 101
Wisconsin – 86
Wyoming – 14
Those are not good states for us, with the possible exception of Wisconsin, and maybe Arizona (we do well in the southwest and it’s a closed primary). But even Wisconsin or Arizona would be more splits. Also, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington are caucuses, so those also favor Sanders.
Those states take us through April 9.
This is no reason to panic. Important note, March 15th has 691 delegates. All the states between then and April 9 have 363. Even if Michigan was an indicator of voting in Ohio, given the fertile grounds of Florida and North Carolina, after April 9, the delegate count is unlikely to be much changed from today. Even if we lose all 8 in a row. We’re going to expand the lead next Tuesday, and watch it slowly shrink back to equilibrium, Hillary about plus 200.
And then…April 19th and 26th:
New York – 247
Connecticut – 55
Delaware – 21
Maryland – 95
Pennsylvania – 189
Rhode Island – 24
There are 631 delegates there. But this is Hillary ground. First, all these states are closed except Rhode Island, which is much better for us. We’ll have more delegates than Bernie out of these states.
And that will be the end game. Because after that, only California and New Jersey have big delegate pots.
So, the point is to not panic or despair. She’s still got this. Even if we continue to “Michigan”, she’s got this.
But what we will have to all do is the feel the Bern for a lot longer. Because after next week, Bernie is going to win a lot of states, and you’re going to see a lot of stories about Bernie momentum, the race changing, etc. But don’t worry about it.
The only reason to start panicking is if he starts reeling off big wins in big states.
As a final note, this is the map from 2008 (Clinton Gold, Obama purple):
versus today’s map (Clinton gold, Bernie green)
We’re kind of sort of using Obama’s plan from 2008. With a slight difference. Obama was stronger in the “heartland”, and Hillary is stronger in the southwest now than Obama was in 2008.
And much like in 2008, the math is heavily in our favor. Last night was bad, after next Tuesday, we’re going to have a lot of rough states, the Bernie supporters are going to be taking bragging rights, and get louder. But come Philadelphia, Hillary will be our nominee.
M. Smith 3/9/2016